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World Bank: India Must Achieve 7.8% Growth to Reach High-Income Status

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In a report released on Friday, the World Bank highlighted that India’s economy must achieve an average growth rate of 7.8% over the next several decades to attain high-income status. The report noted, “For India to elevate itself to a high-income economy by 2047, its gross national income per capita must increase nearly eightfold from current levels.”

According to the World Bank, India is on track to become an upper-middle-income nation by 2032. However, the country will need two additional decades of “very high growth” to realize its aspiration of becoming an advanced economy by 2047, marking the centenary of its independence from British rule.

As of 2023, India’s gross national income per capita was approximately USD 2,540. To achieve high-income status by 2047, this figure would need to rise to USD 20,000. The World Bank pointed out that few countries have successfully transitioned from middle to high income within two decades, and many, including Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa, have remained trapped in the middle-income phase for over twenty years.

To meet its growth ambitions, India must prioritize capital investment, implement labor reforms, and enhance productivity. Furthermore, the dependency ratio, which indicates the proportion of children and elderly supported by the working-age population, is expected to rise from 45% in 2032 to 49% by 2050, as noted in the report.

The report concluded that it is crucial for India to urgently enhance labor force participation and create more job opportunities.

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Market Declines Amid Widespread Global Equity Sell-Off

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The Indian share market saw a decline of over 0.75% amid a widespread selloff in global stocks. The Sensex opened at 81,323.05, down from its previous close of 81,596.63, and plunged 1,107 points, or 1.4%, reaching an intraday low of 80,489.92. Similarly, the Nifty 50 started at 24,733.95 compared to its prior close of 24,813.45, falling 1.4% to hit an intraday low of 24,462.40.

At the close of trading, the Sensex fell by 645 points, or 0.79%, settling at 80,951.99, while the Nifty 50 dropped 204 points, or 0.82%, to finish at 24,609.70.

The mid and small-cap segments outperformed the broader market, with the BSE Midcap index declining by 0.33%, while the BSE Smallcap index managed to increase by 0.17%. Overall market capitalization for BSE-listed companies fell from nearly ₹441 lakh crore to approximately ₹439 lakh crore.

In sector performance, the Nifty Media index was an outlier, rising by 1.11%, but all other sectoral indices closed lower. Nifty Auto, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas sectors each saw declines of over 1%. Specifically, Nifty Bank decreased by 0.24%, while PSU and Private Bank indices fell by 0.58% and 0.22%, respectively. The Nifty Financial Services index also dropped by 0.43%.

IndusInd Bank was the standout performer in the benchmark indices on Thursday, despite reporting a significant net loss for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25. Among the top gainers in the Nifty50 were IndusInd Bank (up by 1.76%), JSW Steel (up by 0.71%), and Bajaj Auto (up by 0.65%). Conversely, ONGC dropped by 1.98%, Mahindra & Mahindra fell by 2.42%, and Hindalco Industries saw a decline of 2.03%. A total of 39 stocks within the index ended in negative territory.

InterGlobe Aviation shares rose nearly 1% in a weak market, buoyed by a significant 62% year-on-year increase in net profit for the March quarter. However, shares of Tech Mahindra, Persistent Systems, HCL Tech, and Mphasis each experienced declines of over 2% during the day, amid concerns regarding a potential rise in the US federal deficit.

Major Asian indices reflected similar trends, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping by 1.19%, and China’s CSI 300 slipping by 0.06%.

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ONGC’s Q4 FY25 Net Profit Declines 35% to Rs 6,448 Crore

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The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced a 35% decline in its net profit for the March quarter, attributing this to lower oil prices and steady production levels. The company’s net profit for the January-March period of FY25 (April 2024 to March 2025) was Rs 6,448 crore, a decrease from Rs 9,869 crore in the same quarter of the previous year, as stated in the company’s announcement.

In the fourth quarter, ONGC achieved a price realization of $73.72 per barrel for crude oil, compared to $80.81 per barrel a year earlier. The company produced 4.7 million tonnes of crude oil during the quarter, slightly less than the 4.714 million tonnes produced in January-March 2024. Natural gas production also decreased to 4.893 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) from 4.951 BCM in Q4.

For the entire fiscal year (FY25), ONGC reported a 12% drop in net profit to Rs 35,610 crore, with revenue remaining nearly unchanged at Rs 1.37 lakh crore. Average oil price realization fell by 4.8% to $76.90 per barrel for the fiscal year, while gas prices remained stable at $6.5 per million British thermal units.

The statement noted that standalone crude oil production in FY25 reached 18.558 million tonnes, marking a 0.9% increase from FY24, while standalone natural gas production fell to 19.654 BCM from 19.978 BCM in the previous year. ONGC reported its highest drilling activity in the last 35 years, with 578 wells drilled, including 109 exploratory and 469 development wells, compared to 544 wells in FY24. The increase in drilling was spurred by a government guarantee of a 10% higher price for gas produced from new wells.

ONGC’s capital expenditure for FY25 totaled around Rs 62,000 crore, up from Rs 37,494 crore in FY24, with significant investments such as Rs 18,365 crore in OPaL and Rs 4,600 crore in ONGC Green Ltd for acquisitions.

The company’s overseas subsidiary, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), experienced a slight production increase of 1.2%, achieving 7.265 million tonnes in FY25, up from 7.178 million tonnes the previous year, driven by strong contributions from key assets in Colombia and South Sudan, despite facing geopolitical challenges and local issues. However, gas production from OVL decreased to 3.013 BCM in FY25 from 3.340 BCM in FY24, mainly due to the conclusion of production in Block 06.1 in Vietnam. OVL’s turnover fell to Rs 12,995 crore from Rs 13,197 crore, influenced by lower realized crude oil prices (USD 70.23 per barrel compared to USD 71.47 per barrel in FY24). Net profit also decreased to Rs 418 crore from Rs 490 crore (restated) in FY24.

ONGC reported a total of 9 discoveries during FY 2024-25, with 5 on land and 4 offshore, and monetized eight hydrocarbon discoveries during this fiscal year, including two new discoveries notified within the same period.

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Bitcoin Surpasses $111,000 for the First Time

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Bitcoin surged past the $111,000 mark for the first time on Thursday, reaching a new all-time high and kindling optimism for a sustained bull market. Early trading in London saw Bitcoin peak at $111,886.41, as reported by Coin Metrics, before stabilizing at approximately $111,083.67 by 1:01 PM London time.

However, analysts caution that there may be challenges ahead for this rally.

The price increase aligns with broader market trends, as Bitcoin spot ETFs have received over $2 billion in inflows across the last ten sessions. Furthermore, Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum as alternatives to fiat currency.

With over 53% gains this year, Bitcoin is now outperforming traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500, even surpassing Amazon to become the fifth-largest asset globally, boasting a market cap of over $2.2 trillion. Traders are increasingly optimistic, with some predicting Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by June, potentially elevating its market cap to $6 trillion.

May 22 also marks Bitcoin Pizza Day, the anniversary of the first real-world Bitcoin transaction, which involved the purchase of two pizzas for 10,000 BTC in 2010. This year’s celebration carries added significance, coinciding with Bitcoin’s remarkable rise to $111,000 (approximately ₹94.8 lakh).

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