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Service Sector PMI Experiences Slowest Growth in Nearly Two Years, Reaching 56.5 in January

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A business survey revealed on Wednesday that the growth of India’s leading services sector slowed to its lowest level in over two years in January, reflecting a decline in demand. However, it remained robust historically and contributed to a notable increase in hiring rates.

The HSBC final India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 in January from 59.3 in December. This figure is slightly below the initial estimate of 56.8 but well above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes between growth and contraction.

Notably, the January PMI is the weakest since November 2022.

Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist for India at HSBC, commented, “The indices for business activity and new business reached their lowest figures since November 2022 and November 2023, respectively.” However, she added, “New export business helped offset the decline and has been on the rise following a dip in late 2024, as corroborated by official statistics.”

Despite the slowdown, service providers expressed optimism for future business activity over the next 12 months, citing factors such as advertising, competitive pricing, and new client inquiries as major contributors. Nevertheless, overall sentiment has dipped to a three-month low, reflecting a broader trend.

In the Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman provided some tax relief for the middle class but refrained from announcing significant reforms needed to stimulate growth.

India’s retail inflation rate eased to 5.22% in December, increasing the likelihood of a more accommodating monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of India is widely anticipated to announce a reduction in its key repo rate during its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Friday.

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UN Lowers India’s 2025 Economic Growth Projection to 6.3%

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The United Nations has revised India’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3%, emphasizing that the country still ranks among the fastest-growing large economies despite this adjustment. This growth is expected to be bolstered by strong consumer spending and government expenditure.

In its report titled “The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2025,” the UN highlights the precarious state of the global economy, which is currently affected by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainties. The rising tariffs in the US are anticipated to elevate production costs, disrupt global supply chains, and increase financial volatility.

Ingo Pitterle, Senior Economic Affairs Officer at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), noted that India’s economy continues to flourish, driven by robust private consumption and public investment, even as the growth projection has been adjusted to 6.3% for 2025.

The report indicates that consistent private consumption, substantial public investments, and strong exports in the services sector will sustain economic growth. Although impending US tariffs might impact merchandise exports, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, energy, and copper—currently exempt from tariffs—may mitigate some economic effects, though these exemptions could change.

The revised growth forecast of 6.3% for India in 2025 is slightly below the earlier estimate of 6.6% provided in the UN’s January report. Regarding employment, the report indicates stability driven by steady economic conditions, but highlights ongoing gender disparities that call for enhanced workforce inclusivity.

Additionally, inflation in India is predicted to decrease from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, remaining within the central bank’s target range. This decline in inflation allows central banks across the South Asian region to initiate or maintain monetary easing through 2025.

The global GDP growth forecast has been adjusted to 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points lower than the prior January estimate. Meanwhile, governments in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are expected to pursue fiscal consolidation and economic reforms supported by the IMF.

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Adani Airports Terminates Partnership with Celebi for Mumbai and Ahmedabad Airports

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Adani Airport Holdings has immediately terminated its ground handling concession agreement with Turkish firm Celebi at both Mumbai and Ahmedabad airports.

In a press release, Adani Airports stated that the decision follows the government’s revocation of Celebi’s security clearance: “We have terminated the ground handling concession agreements with Celebi at Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) and Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport (SVPIA).”

“As a result, Celebi has been instructed to promptly hand over all ground handling facilities to ensure seamless operations,” the company added.

Furthermore, they confirmed their commitment to providing uninterrupted service to all airlines through new ground handling agencies. “All existing Celebi employees at CSMIA and SVPIA will be transferred to the new agencies under their current employment terms. Ground handling operations at our airports will continue without disruption. We remain dedicated to maintaining high service standards and promoting national interests,” spokespersons for Mumbai and Ahmedabad Airports stated.

This termination decision was made following the Union government’s revocation of the Turkish firm’s security clearance. Previously, Adani Airport Holdings also ended its agreement with Turkish company DragonPass, which had allowed access to airport lounges.

This action aligns with recent geopolitical tensions, particularly Turkey’s support for Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attacks and India’s subsequent ‘Operation Sindoor’ aimed at addressing the situation.

“Our partnership with DragonPass, which provided lounge access, has been discontinued with immediate effect. DragonPass customers will no longer have access to lounges at Adani-managed airports. This change will not affect the lounge experience for other travelers,” the Adani Airport Holdings spokesperson remarked.

In a notification issued on Thursday, the Ministry of Civil Aviation announced that “in the exercise of power conferred upon DG, BCAS, the security clearance for Celebi Airport Services India Pvt Ltd is hereby revoked with immediate effect in the interest of National Security.”

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India Posts $26.42 Billion Trade Deficit in April as Exports Climb 9%

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India’s merchandise exports increased by 9.03% year-on-year, reaching $38.49 billion in April. In contrast, imports surged by 19.12% to $64.91 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $26.42 billion, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry on Thursday.

The total value of exports, which includes both merchandise and services, is estimated at $73.80 billion for April, marking a growth of 12.70% compared to the previous year. Total imports for goods and services are projected at $82.45 billion, reflecting a 15.72% increase.

Commenting on these figures, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal expressed optimism for sustaining the current momentum in exports.

In April, services exports were valued at $35.31 billion, up from $30.18 billion in the same month last year, while services imports were estimated at $17.54 billion, compared to $16.76 billion a year earlier. The growth in services exports is estimated at 17.01% year-on-year.

Non-oil imports for April reached $44.20 billion, up from $37.99 billion in the same month last year. Additionally, India’s engineering goods exports rose to $9.51 billion in April 2025, compared to $8.55 billion in April 2024.

Notably, despite tariff challenges, India’s exports to the US climbed to $8.42 billion in April, up from $6.61 billion in the same period last year.

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