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RBI Expected to Reduce Repo Rate by 25 Basis Points in Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s Initial Policy Decision

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to unveil its initial monetary policy under the leadership of new Governor Sanjay Malhotra this Friday.
Analysts expect the central bank to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to foster economic growth while keeping inflation in check.
A report from Bank of Baroda highlights that inflationary pressures have lessened, largely due to falling prices of essential vegetables like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes. This improved supply situation has contributed to less volatility in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), providing the RBI with some flexibility for a cautious rate reduction.

The report notes, “After weighing all macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, we believe there is room for a 25 bps rate cut by the RBI in the upcoming policy.”
Currently, the repo rate is at 6.50 percent, which has remained unchanged for the last eleven meetings.

During the December policy meeting, the MPC decided 5-1 to keep the rate steady, focusing on stability while observing inflation trends. Nonetheless, a 50 bps reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was enacted, lowering it to 4 percent, to enhance liquidity and support credit growth.
While a 25 bps cut is widely anticipated, experts believe that the RBI will also need to introduce additional liquidity measures to ensure sufficient cash flow in the banking sector.
Emkay Research has indicated that both investors and market players are seeking policy actions beyond standard rate cuts, as liquidity issues remain a persistent challenge.
For the financial year 2024-25, the RBI has projected India’s real GDP growth at 7.2 percent, while the Economic Survey estimates a 6.4 percent growth rate, which aligns with the projections from the National Statistical Office (NSO).
In light of these economic forecasts, a cautious and thoughtful approach to rate cuts appears likely, with future adjustments contingent on evolving inflation trends and macroeconomic developments.
As the MPC gears up for its latest decision, market participants will closely monitor Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s views on rate adjustments and liquidity management, as well as any additional policy announcements aimed at sustaining India’s economic momentum.

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TN Farmers Gear Up for Kurivai Paddy Cultivation with Positive Monsoon Outlook

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The India Meteorological Department has predicted an early arrival of the southwest monsoon, prompting farmers in Tamil Nadu to gear up for the Kuruvai paddy cultivation season. Encouraged by favorable storage levels at the Mettur Dam and recent summer showers in the catchment areas, farmers in the Delta districts have started early preparations for their fields.

In response to this anticipated season, the Tamil Nadu Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Department has taken proactive measures. Officials are currently stocking seeds of short-duration paddy varieties to ensure adequate supply for the expected demand.

Last year marked a historic achievement for Tamil Nadu in Kuruvai paddy cultivation, with around 5.599 lakh acres (approximately 2.27 lakh hectares) cultivated—the highest in 48 years. This success was largely due to the timely water release from the Mettur Dam on June 12, coinciding with the traditional start date for Kuruvai cultivation, and the early onset of the southwest monsoon, which provided ample water.

The Delta region, pivotal for Kuruvai cultivation, played a significant role in last year’s milestone, with Thanjavur cultivating 1.30 lakh acres, Tiruvarur 92,500 acres, Mayiladuthurai 90,000 acres, Tiruchy 16,105 acres, and Nagapattinam 3,750 acres. Increased reliance on groundwater in areas where Cauvery water was insufficient or delayed further supported these figures.

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, optimism remains high among officials. As of May 11, 2025, the Mettur Dam’s water level reached 108.30 feet, notably higher than the previous year. The favorable monsoon predictions have led to expectations that the area under Kuruvai cultivation may exceed the 2024 figures.

Agriculture department officials have confirmed that they are prepared to supply farmers with seeds of all recommended short-term paddy varieties, including CO 51, CO 55, ASD 16, ASD 21, TPS 5, and ADT 36. While traditional varieties like ADT 36 and ASD 16 are not eligible for government subsidies, they remain favored among farmers due to their unique agronomic benefits.

Additionally, officials anticipate the announcement of a special Kuruvai cultivation package from the government soon. Along with seed distribution, a substantial quantity of fertilizers is being stocked to support farmers throughout the season. Seed distribution will be tailored to farmers’ preferences, ensuring they receive the most suitable varieties for their local conditions.

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Muthoot Finance Shares Drop Over 7% Following RBI’s Draft LTV Guidelines

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On Thursday, shares of Muthoot Finance fell by 7.25%, or Rs 163.90, reaching an intraday low of Rs 2,096 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Similarly, on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the stock was trading at Rs 2,096.40, down by Rs 166.35 (7.35%) during intraday trading.

The decline in share price is attributed to concerns regarding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) draft regulations on loan-to-value (LTV) norms for gold loans. Analysts suggest that these draft guidelines could negatively impact the disbursement LTV of Muthoot Finance and other non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) if implemented. According to Motilal Oswal, “The growth outlook for gold loans will remain uncertain until the RBI finalizes the gold-lending guidelines.”

This drop in share price follows a previous day’s close of Rs 2,262.75, an increase of 2%. Despite the decline, Muthoot Finance reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the full financial year 2024–25 (FY25). In Q4, the company noted a 22% year-on-year increase in consolidated profit after tax (PAT), totaling Rs 1,444 crore, compared to Rs 1,182 crore in Q4 of the previous fiscal year (FY24).

For the entire year, Muthoot Finance achieved its highest standalone PAT of Rs 5,201 crore, marking a 28% growth from FY24. The company also reached a significant milestone by surpassing Rs 1 lakh crore in standalone loan assets under management (AUM) as well as gold loan AUM. Overall, the consolidated gross loan AUM rose by 37% year-on-year to Rs 1,22,181 crore in Q4 FY25, compared to Rs 89,079 crore in Q4 FY24, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%.

Furthermore, Muthoot Finance expanded its branch network to 7,391 locations nationwide, a 13% increase from last year’s 6,541 branches. The company announced its highest-ever dividend of Rs 26 per share (260% on a face value of Rs 10), rewarding shareholders for a strong year.

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Tata Capital Reports Q5 FY25 PAT Increase to ₹1,000 Crore with 50% Revenue Growth

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Tata Capital announced a remarkable 31% year-on-year (YoY) increase in its consolidated profit after tax (PAT), reaching Rs 1,000 crore for the quarter ending March 2025. In the same period last year, the PAT stood at Rs 765 crore.

The company’s total operational revenue saw a substantial rise of nearly 50%, climbing to Rs 7,478 crore in the January-March quarter of FY25, up from Rs 4,998 crore in the previous year, as noted in a regulatory filing to the stock exchange.

For the full financial year 2024-25, Tata Capital reported a PAT of Rs 3,655 crore, an increase from Rs 3,327 crore in FY24, with revenues surging to Rs 28,313 crore, compared to Rs 18,175 crore the previous year.

Last month, Tata Capital submitted its draft documents to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for an initial public offering (IPO) using a confidential pre-filing approach. Reports suggest that the IPO could raise around $2 billion, valuing the company at approximately $11 billion. This IPO will include the issuance of new equity shares alongside an offer for sale (OFS) by certain shareholders.

Identified as an upper-layer non-banking finance company (NBFC) by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Tata Capital has received board approval to move forward with this initial stock sale. Notably, Tata Sons, the holding company of Tata Capital, holds a 92.83% stake in the company. If successful, this IPO would be the largest initial share sale in India’s financial sector, marking the Tata Group’s second foray into public markets in recent years, following the listing of Tata Technologies in November 2023.

This IPO aligns with Tata Capital’s commitment to meet the RBI’s listing requirements, which mandate that upper-layer NBFCs must list on stock exchanges within three years of being designated as such; Tata Capital was classified as an upper-layer NBFC in September 2022.

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