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Nomura Predicts RBI Will Lower Repo Rate by 100 Basis Points by End of 2025
Nomura attributes its expectation for further rate cuts to this economic underperformance. Ahead of the RBI’s rate decision on Friday, Nomura predicts a reduction of 25 basis points in June, August, October, and December of 2025.
The report also indicates that India will maintain prudent fiscal policies. “The government is expected to adhere to fiscal discipline while monetary policy takes on a more significant role,” it noted. Furthermore, Nomura believes the RBI will have increased flexibility regarding foreign exchange rates, especially USD/INR, suggesting that the RBI may accumulate reserves as the US dollar weakens, which could limit the appreciation of the Indian rupee.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene from June 4-6. Analysts anticipate a third consecutive 25 basis point cut as inflation remains below the average target of 4%. The Reserve Bank has stated it will continue its liquidity management operations in alignment with its monetary policy to ensure that system liquidity is sufficient to support the economy’s productive needs.
A favorable inflation outlook coupled with moderate growth supports a monetary policy that prioritizes growth while remaining vigilant about the changing global macroeconomic landscape, as outlined in the RBI’s ‘2024-25 annual report’. Notably, during its April meeting, the RBI MPC unanimously voted to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.0%.
Gold prices in India recorded a slight increase on January 19, 2026, supported by global market trends, local demand, and movements in the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
As per market estimates, 24-carat gold, which is considered pure gold, is priced at ₹14,569 per gram, or ₹1,45,690 per 10 grams. 22-carat gold, commonly used for jewellery, is trading at around ₹13,355 per gram, or ₹1,33,550 per 10 grams.
The prices have risen marginally compared to the previous day. The increase is mainly linked to a weaker Indian rupee against the US dollar, which makes imported gold more expensive.
Gold rates vary slightly across cities such as Mangalore and other parts of the country. These differences depend on local taxes, transportation costs, jeweller margins, and regional demand.
Demand for gold remains strong due to the wedding season and festive buying, which continues to support higher prices. Investors also turn to gold during uncertain economic conditions, as it is seen as a safe-haven asset.
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Experts say that global geopolitical developments, inflation concerns, and central bank policies are also influencing international gold prices, which in turn affect domestic rates.
Market participants expect gold prices to remain firm in the near term if the rupee stays weak and demand continues at current levels.
Gold prices witnessed a mild decline in the domestic bullion market on January 16, 2026. The price of 24-carat gold was recorded at ₹143,080 per 10 grams. This marked a fall of ₹360 compared to its previous closing price, indicating a soft trend in the precious metal market.
Similarly, the price of 22-carat gold also moved lower. It was trading at ₹131,157 per 10 grams during the day. The decline in gold prices reflects cautious sentiment among investors amid changing global economic signals.
Market experts said gold prices were affected by fluctuations in international markets and movements in the US dollar. Profit booking by investors at higher levels also contributed to the marginal drop in prices.
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Despite the decline, demand for gold remains steady in the domestic market. Jewellers reported moderate buying interest, especially for 22-carat gold used in jewellery. Industry participants are now closely watching global inflation data, interest rate trends, and geopolitical developments.
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the coming days. Investors are advised to keep an eye on global cues and currency movements before making fresh investments.
Silver prices fell sharply from record levels in the national capital on Thursday due to global profit-booking. The price of silver dropped by ₹12,500 to ₹2,43,500 per kilogram.
According to the All India Sarafa Association, the white metal had touched a record high of ₹2,56,000 per kilogram in the previous trading session on Wednesday. Silver had surged by ₹5,000 in that session amid strong global cues.
Gold prices also weakened on Thursday. The yellow metal declined by ₹900 per 10 grams in the local market. Traders attributed the fall to selling pressure after recent gains.
Market experts said that a rise in global prices earlier had encouraged investors to book profits. This selling pressure impacted both silver and gold prices in the domestic market.
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They added that movements in international bullion prices and a stronger dollar also influenced the decline. Investors are now closely watching global economic signals for further direction in precious metal prices.
Gold Prices Edge Up in India on January 19, 2026
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