As the ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 approaches, doubts have emerged regarding India’s prospects, particularly concerning the fitness of Jasprit Bumrah, the pace leader and ICC 2024 Men’s Cricketer of the Year.

Cricketing icons Ricky Ponting and Ravi Shastri have voiced that Bumrah’s potential absence could considerably hinder India’s chances, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 30-35% in their likelihood of securing the title.

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Bumrah had a remarkable year in 2024, earning accolades as both the ICC Men’s Cricketer of the Year and ICC Men’s Test Cricketer of the Year. He played a pivotal role in India’s successful T20 World Cup campaign and excelled across all formats.

Unfortunately, a back spasm incurred during the Sydney Test against Australia in January has sidelined him. Though Bumrah is included in India’s preliminary Champions Trophy squad, his absence from the upcoming three-match ODI series against England has raised alarm bells regarding his condition.

Ravi Shastri, former head coach of India, cautioned against rushing Bumrah back onto the field during The ICC Review, emphasizing the perils involved. He highlighted that as India faces a packed international schedule, risking their top fast bowler for a single tournament could lead to long-term issues.

“I think it’s high risk. There’s too much big cricket coming up for India,” Shastri stated during his discussion with Sanjana Ganesan on The ICC Review.

“At this stage of his career, I think he’s too valuable to be thrown in for one game without proper conditioning. The expectations will be immense, and returning from injury is never straightforward.”

Shastri reiterated Bumrah’s critical role in India’s Champions Trophy ambitions, asserting that his absence would be a significant setback for the team’s strategy.

“If Bumrah is not fit, India’s chances of winning the Champions Trophy drop by 30-35%. With a fully fit Bumrah, you can count on him for the death overs. It would change the dynamics entirely,” he remarked.

Ponting shared Shastri’s concerns and noted that Bumrah’s heavy workload during the recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy might have led to his injury. He expressed that attention now turns to Mohammed Shami, who has recently returned from injury and participated in India’s limited-overs series against England.

“My major worry for India during the Test series in Australia was Bumrah lacking Shami as a backup, leading him to shoulder more of the workload,” Ponting stated on The ICC Review.

“That could very well be a factor in his current injury, as Bumrah probably bowled more than he should have without Shami’s support.”

However, Ponting remains optimistic about Shami’s comeback. The experienced pacer has displayed flashes of brilliance, such as an impressive 3/25 in the fourth T20I against England. His upcoming performances in the ODI series will be crucial in assessing his capability to handle a complete 10-over spell.

Shastri also commented on Shami’s return, emphasizing that his fitness and endurance will be under scrutiny in the upcoming ODIs against England.

“It will be intriguing to see if India plays him in all three matches or opts to ease him back in, perhaps playing him in the first and third matches only to prepare for the Champions Trophy,” Shastri said.

“Ten overs are a different challenge compared to the four overs in T20s, and it will be important to see how he copes during the fielding as well after bowling those 10 overs.”

Shami last featured in an ODI during the 2023 ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup final against Australia, where he emerged as the tournament’s leading wicket-taker. His fitness and ability to deliver full spells will be vital for India’s success in the Champions Trophy, particularly if Bumrah is unavailable.

India will kick off their ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 journey against Bangladesh on February 20 in Dubai. Given the conditions may favor fast bowlers initially, having a fully fit pace attack with both Bumrah and Shami would be a considerable asset for India.