India and New Zealand have secured their spots in the semifinals of the ICC Champions Trophy following dominant wins in their first two Group Stage matches. They are set to clash at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on Sunday in a game that has little bearing on the tournament.

With this in mind, both teams are likely to rotate their squads, giving second-string players a chance to showcase their skills against quality spin bowling. While a win will see India finish at the top of Group A, its significance appears minimal, as they are poised to face either Australia or South Africa in the semifinals—both teams known for their formidable spin attacks.

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Despite their two successes so far, the Indian batters have shown discomfort against spin. New Zealand’s spin bowlers, including Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell, and part-time off-spinner Glenn Phillips, may pose a tough challenge.

The key Indian batsmen have been cautious against the spinners, focusing on containment rather than taking risks. This strategy worked against Bangladesh’s Mehidy Hasan Miraz and Rishad Hossain, as well as against Pakistan’s leg-spinner Abrar Ahmed.

Memories of their 0-3 Test series loss at home to New Zealand last year might linger, but the top order—featuring Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, and KL Rahul—will be expected to handle spin effectively, especially since they are familiar with the conditions.

Having hosted the ILT20 recently, the pitches in Dubai have become worn, often favoring spin bowlers, which was evident during India’s matches against Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The decision to select five spinners—Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Varun Chakravarthy, and Washington Sundar—raised eyebrows in the lead-up to the tournament, but has proven prudent given the pitch conditions.

So far, Jadeja, Axar, and Kuldeep have effectively kept opposition batters at bay in the middle overs, maintaining an economy rate of less than five runs per over during this event. Against Pakistan, although Mohammad Rizwan and Saud Shakeel managed a 100-run partnership, they struggled to accelerate due to the Indian spinners’ tight bowling.

However, the scenario might be different against New Zealand, as their batters—such as Kane Williamson, Will Young, Tom Latham, Devon Conway, and Rachin Ravindra—are adept against spin.

Possible Rest for Rohit and Shami?

With no significant impact on the tournament from this match, India may consider resting captain Rohit Sharma and fast bowler Mohammed Shami to ensure they reach peak form for the semifinals.

Rohit had experienced some discomfort during the match against Pakistan but managed to bat without apparent issues. Meanwhile, Shami could be rested due to calf concerns from the previous match, allowing him extra recovery time ahead of the semifinals on March 4.

If Rohit does not participate, vice-captain Shubman Gill will lead the team in an ODI for the first time. Rishabh Pant may also get his first match of the tournament, while Arshdeep Singh could replace Shami, and the in-form Chakravarthy may come in for Kuldeep, who is also returning from injury.

Squads:

India: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Rishabh Pant, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav, Harshit Rana, Mohammed Shami, Arshdeep Singh, Ravindra Jadeja, Varun Chakravarthy

New Zealand: Mitchell Santner (c), Michael Bracewell, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Will O’Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Nathan Smith, Kane Williamson, Will Young, Jacob Duffy